Matt’s Take: Is Reds' roster good enough to win NL Central? 

By Matthew McAdow
HCP columnist

While I am overly optimistic year in and year out, as I love the Reds, I often times know deep down that the Reds aren’t going to contend in the division. This year, however, I feel different.  

It’s not the optimism with fingers crossed like usual. It’s optimism with a rotation, bullpen and depth – enough depth to really have a competitive spring. Competition within the organization is a great thing and is something the Reds have lacked in years past. So, is this Reds team good enough to win the National League Central for the first time since 2012? 

For the first time in a long time, I truly believe they have the talent to do.  

Let’s do a comparison throughout the league:

My rotation rankings: Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals

Reds win my rotation rankings – Greene, Abbott, Burns, Lodolo, Singer, Lowder, Williamson (best in the division, with the Pirates following right behind Cincinnati).

1B – Small edge to the Cubs and Michael Busch, as he slashed .261 last season with 34 HRs. I think Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer are both capable to compete with these numbers, however. 

2B – If McLain is as bad as he was last season, Cincinnati is lacking big time at second base. The Brewers have Brice Turang, and he’s the best second baseman in the division. Edge to the Brew Crew. 

SS – There is no shortstop I’d rather have on the Reds right now than Elly De La Cruz. Yes, he has his errors. With rest, he will surely iron this out. He is going to have his breakout season. Edge Cincinnati (and it’s not close). 

3B – Defensively – Ke’Bryan Hayes is the best in the world. Power – We have the best power hitting third baseman in the league in Eugenio Suarez. Edge – Cincinnati.  

OF – Brewers win this with an outfield consisting of Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Perkins and Yelich. Outfield production is my biggest worry for this Reds' roster. 

Bullpen: This is a tie between the Brewers and the Reds in my opinion. If healthy, I think Cincinnati could certainly be better than their 3.7 fWAR posted last season, just trailing Milwaukee at 4.2 fWAR. Losing Nick Martinez as the ultimate tool really hurts this team, but the additions of Burke, Ferguson, and Johnson make me believe this bullpen can be better than last season.    

So is this Reds' roster good enough to win the division? I think the answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean they will. One-run games, putting runs on the board, and staying healthy will play a major factor into this tough division. As of right now, fans are arguing if Burns will make the rotation. That’s what gives me hope, as he would start in every rotation in Major League Baseball. That’s the amount of depth Cincinnati currently has if health remains on their side.  

Many markets currently have the Reds at 82.5 for the over/under. That’s a good sign, as they’ve only hit the 83-win mark twice since 2014. I’d cautiously bet the over as of mid-February. Ask me again in a month.