Matt’s Take: Cincinnati Reds are 50-47 at the break; let’s dive in

By Matthew McAdow
HCP columnist

At 50-47 at the break, Cincinnati currently finds themselves 7.5 games back from the Cubs in National League Central and 2.5 games back from the Padres in the wild card race. While this is certainly striking distance, Cincinnati has to find a way to get more than 3 or 4 games above .500 in a hurry.  

Hovering around .500 this year isn’t going to cut it, as the National League is absolutely loaded. Realistically, they may need to win 90 games this year, which would require a historic second half from our beloved team. This break is much needed, while also allowing the front office to jump on the phones and start showing interest in a couple bullpen arms and a power bat.  

Optimistic Matthew

The Reds are above .500 with a new manager, an injured Hunter Greene, and while multiple players went through career-worst slumps.  

If Greene and Lowder return soon, this team can without a doubt have the best rotation in the National League Central.

The Reds didn’t bring back Francona to not try and win. Expect big moves before the break for this team to try and make a run at it.  

Elly De La Cruz is everything this organization could’ve hoped for and then some. He is slashing .284, has 18 HRs, and has an OPS of .854. He is leading National League shortstops in nearly every category and is continuously improving at the plate. From the right side, he is up to .233 and his approach and shorter swing is working much better than years past.  

Pessimistic Matthew

New manager, same .500 ball club. This team has the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in baseball and continuously has failed to beat its divisional opponents. 

This team will likely ride it out, make a low end or non-inspiring trade for a couple average arms, and likely find themselves at 80 wins roughly.  

If David Bell was managing this team, I think this team might have the same record as they do with Francona or maybe even slightly better, as he wouldn’t have started Blake Dunn or rostered Jacob Hurtubise over Will Benson to begin the season. He also allowed Elly to steal bases at a far better rate than Tito.  

Cincinnati should think about selling those on one year contracts if they come out after the break and lose the first two series. You can’t continue to throw out the same roster with a few average additions each year and expect different results. 

Realistic Trades (Want good players? Then you have to stop prospect hugging)

Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax (Twins RP) for Chase Petty (Reds SP), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Reds 1B), Edwin Arroyo (Reds Prospect), and Cam Collier (Reds Prospect).

Willi Castro (Twins SS) for Chase Petty (Reds SP), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Reds 1B).

Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox OF) for Edwin Arroyo (Reds Prospect), Connor Phillip (Reds Pitcher), Julian Aguiar (Reds Prospect).

Byron Buxton (Twins OF), for Sal Stewart (Reds Prospect), TJ Friedl (Reds OF), and Chase Petty (Reds Pitcher).

Steven Kwan (Guardians OF) for Rhett Lowder (Reds Pitcher), Cam Collier (Reds Prospect), and Luis Mey (Reds Pitcher).