Derby Day: The most exciting two minutes in sports
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Derby Day: The most exciting two minutes in sports
By JIM MOORE
This weekend is it – The Run for The Roses: the most exciting two minutes in sports. The first jewel of the Triple Crown – The Kentucky Derby.
All the prep races have been run, all the horses have arrived in Louisville, the hats have been bought and the Mint Juleps are staged for their grand appearance. The Racing Industry talking heads have been beside themselves with trivia and conjecture and non-information and interviews with everyone from the trainers of the favorites to the waiters in the restaurants.
Never mind the $2 million purse. Millions and millions of dollars will be spent and wagered on that two minutes Saturday when 20 beautiful
Thoroughbreds break from the gate and rollick their way to the finish line of the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
So here are my decidedly amateur ideas about what we’re likely to see on May 1st.
The early favorite, “Lookin at Lucky” under Garrett Gomez drew the #1 position and winning from along the rail is terribly difficult and quite
uncommon. He will have to protect his position while still saving some thin for the home stretch and in a race with the speed of The Derby that is a
very tall order, even for a horse as fast as he is. I don’t think he’ll pull it off… partly because…
In the number 4 slot is “Super Saver”, who is probably the third or fourth most flat-out speed demon in the entire field, and is piloted by
Super-Jockey Calvin Borel. Calvin is famous for seeking the rail, drafting in behind the leader by a few lengths and then making incredible bursts of
speed in the final eight-mile to win going away. “Super Saver” is exactly the horse that can put too much pressure on “Lookin at Lucky” and force
their trip to be a total shoot-out. That is what Calvin is expected to do – but I think that will be a mistake that costs Calvin and “Super Saver” the
race. Even though “Lookin at Lucky” has justifiably been a heavy favorite up to now, I think the post position draw tilted the dynamics of the race
against him and thus I think the horses Calvin should really be planning to beat are “Conveyance” ridden by Martin Garcia who is stating from the number
12 slot and “Sidney’s Candy” ridden by Joe Talamo and starting from way out in the number 20 slot.
“Conveyance” is a running machine and is largely expected to be the pacesetter for the race. From the center-of-the-pack 12 position he isn’t to
far out to move in and save some ground if need be yet he’s far enough clear of the knot that will form in the inside lanes that he won’t lose any time
battling that shuffle. And, unlike most “pacesetters” who are just “targets” for the other horses and usually give way in the stretch, “Conveyance” has
had the habit of setting the pace all the way to the finish line. Thus if Calvin spends his effort beating “Lookin at Lucky” he may not even come home
in the money. But “Conveyance”, too, has a problem and that problem is named “Sidney’s Candy” from out there in the last position. I’m expecting Joe
Talamo to move “Sidney’s Candy” in across lanes 19 to 13 or 14 fairly quickly and then just draft behind “Conveyance” like Clint Eastwood’s shadow
until they are somewhere in the last turn and then challenge “Conveyance” to a full-bore stampede for the finish line.
To go even farther out on this limb I’ll say that while we are watching “Sidney’s Candy” win by a length or so over “Conveyance”, we’ll also be
watching “Super Saver” and “Lookin at Lucky” about a length behind and over by the rail fighting for the Show.
Good Luck, Everyone!
By JIM MOORE
This weekend is it – The Run for The Roses: the most exciting two minutes in sports. The first jewel of the Triple Crown – The Kentucky Derby.
All the prep races have been run, all the horses have arrived in Louisville, the hats have been bought and the Mint Juleps are staged for their grand appearance. The Racing Industry talking heads have been beside themselves with trivia and conjecture and non-information and interviews with everyone from the trainers of the favorites to the waiters in the restaurants.
Never mind the $2 million purse. Millions and millions of dollars will be spent and wagered on that two minutes Saturday when 20 beautiful Thoroughbreds break from the gate and rollick their way to the finish line of the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
So here are my decidedly amateur ideas about what we’re likely to see on May 1st.
The early favorite, “Lookin at Lucky” under Garrett Gomez drew the #1 position and winning from along the rail is terribly difficult and quite uncommon. He will have to protect his position while still saving some thin for the home stretch and in a race with the speed of The Derby that is a very tall order, even for a horse as fast as he is. I don’t think he’ll pull it off… partly because…
In the number 4 slot is “Super Saver”, who is probably the third or fourth most flat-out speed demon in the entire field, and is piloted by Super-Jockey Calvin Borel. Calvin is famous for seeking the rail, drafting in behind the leader by a few lengths and then making incredible bursts of speed in the final eight-mile to win going away. “Super Saver” is exactly the horse that can put too much pressure on “Lookin at Lucky” and force their trip to be a total shoot-out. That is what Calvin is expected to do – but I think that will be a mistake that costs Calvin and “Super Saver” the
race. Even though “Lookin at Lucky” has justifiably been a heavy favorite up to now, I think the post position draw tilted the dynamics of the race against him and thus I think the horses Calvin should really be planning to beat are “Conveyance” ridden by Martin Garcia who is stating from the number 12 slot and “Sidney’s Candy” ridden by Joe Talamo and starting from way out in the number 20 slot.
“Conveyance” is a running machine and is largely expected to be the pacesetter for the race. From the center-of-the-pack 12 position he isn’t to
far out to move in and save some ground if need be yet he’s far enough clear of the knot that will form in the inside lanes that he won’t lose any time battling that shuffle. And, unlike most “pacesetters” who are just “targets” for the other horses and usually give way in the stretch, “Conveyance” has had the habit of setting the pace all the way to the finish line. Thus if Calvin spends his effort beating “Lookin at Lucky” he may not even come home in the money. But “Conveyance”, too, has a problem and that problem is named “Sidney’s Candy” from out there in the last position. I’m expecting Joe Talamo to move “Sidney’s Candy” in across lanes 19 to 13 or 14 fairly quickly and then just draft behind “Conveyance” like Clint Eastwood’s shadow until they are somewhere in the last turn and then challenge “Conveyance” to a full-bore stampede for the finish line.
To go even farther out on this limb I’ll say that while we are watching “Sidney’s Candy” win by a length or so over “Conveyance”, we’ll also be watching “Super Saver” and “Lookin at Lucky” about a length behind and over by the rail fighting for the Show.
Good Luck, Everyone!
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