Opinions 28 November 2023

Poll: Democrats support Biden more than others, but Michelle Obama remains popular

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

Democratic voters support President Joe Biden far more than any of the declared candidates seeking the nomination and a group of hypothetical candidates from across the country except for one: Michelle Obama. 

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, found that Biden would win the Democratic primary over a wide swath of hypothetical Democratic challengers. 

 The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll - Logo - White Background
Registered Democratic voters would pick Biden (74%) over Marianne Williamson (9%). They'd also opt for Biden (58%) over U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (25%). And Biden (57%) would beat Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders (29%).

Biden (53%) has the upper hand on California Gov. Gavin Newsom (27%). The incumbent (60%) triumphs over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (25%). Vice President Kamala Harris (24%) wouldn't beat Biden (62%) either. Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (32%) comes closer than other Democrats, but comes up short against Biden (54%). 

Biden (63%) bests U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (21%). The president (64%) also comes out on top over Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (12%). 

Former First Lady of the United States Michelle Obama is a different story. Obama (45%) would narrowly win over Biden (43%).

The former first lady is popular. 

"Michelle Obama currently has the best of multiple worlds," said David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights. "She's a celebrity with near universal name recognition. She's beloved by Democrats who remember her years as First Lady. But she doesn’t have the string of failures and missteps that follow anyone who holds formal political office.

"In other words, she has all the goodwill that comes with the Obama brand but no record that a potential opponent could use against her. She’s not running for office now – but if she chose to do so in a future cycle, she could be formidable," he said.

When voters were asked about Michelle Obama this summer, she performed even better in a hypothetical match up. In that earlier poll, Obama (48%) had more support than Biden (36%). The wife of former President Barack Obama has strong support from women, people younger than 55, moderate Democrats, voters without kids, and voters with children younger than 18, according to the poll.

The poll of 2,605 voters included 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 20-26 with a margin of error of 1.92%.

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