How Democrats have mastered modern elections

By Guy Ciarrocchi 
Real Clear Wire

Technology and tactics have changed dramatically since Lincoln was training Whig Party leaders, though his strategy for winning elections still applies today. It’s a timeless roadmap: identify your voters; work on undecideds to grow your voter bloc; and then, get out the vote (GOTV).

Yet beyond technology, the emphasis is very different from Lincoln’s time. Democrats have altered the strategy – and therefore their tactics. Meanwhile, for the GOP, Trump on the ballot seems to be the only counterbalance.

Democrats' focus is on turning out those who already believe, and those who can be guilted into believing, far less than persuading undecideds. This is especially true in swing states, where the GOP is chasing undecideds, and trying to motivate their voter coalition: establishment-types plus conservatives and MAGA.

Many have noticed the change in turnout percentages, which favored Democrats in recent years (besides 2016 and 2024). Yet commentators have failed to understand the strategy and tactics that the Democrats now employ.

First, the universe of truly persuadable voters, who could vote (without too much hesitation) either Republican or Democrat, has shrunk to about 10%. That’s not to be confused with people who describe themselves as “independent,” which is at an all-time high.

Those two data points are related but very distinct. A plurality of voters describes themselves as “independent,” but do so for a variety of reasons. They dislike being labeled, or they like to view themselves as not being tied to one party. Yet they often vote for the same party over the other.

Second, today almost all the effort is on Lincoln’s tactic to get all voters to the polls. It’s a battle to see which party can squeeze more water out of their sponge.

In 2025, in Pennsylvania, Democratic turnout outperformed the GOP by 9.1%. Independents broke 2-1 for the Democrats, but the race was over based purely on partisan turnout. Losing turnout by over 9%, the GOP would have to had to win independents by over 8-1 to have any chance.

In a prior life, I was helping an incumbent who was losing popularity before the election even began. He tried to reassure us that once the campaign “began,” with ads and events, etc., everything would change. That was the “old school” mindset.

Which leads to the third major difference from Lincoln’s era: the Democrats’ campaign cycle never ends.

There is no transition. There is no down time. There is no “100 days.” The victor doesn’t even get to focus on assembling his or her staff and cabinet. Each step, each policy statement, and each policy for which a statement has not been issued, is a rallying cry. Their fight never stops.

The Democrats, with their ideological allies and influencers, created this new phenomenon and are way ahead of the GOP. The reality is that the Democrats are driving and/or benefitting from this new de facto GOTV effort.

It’s who they are, in part, because government – the power, programs and, money – is their oxygen. In a sense, it’s their religion. So, in fairness, it’s easier for them.

GOTV used to be about Election Day: Knock on doors, call up voters, drive senior citizens to the polls. Old-school “knock and drag.”

But we’re in a new era now.

It involves segments with talking heads and social media, along with rallies and marches, from “Defund the Police” to LGBTQ+ rights, and “No Kings” to anti-ICE. It spans from Portland to Minneapolis and beyond. It’s all about GOTV: keeping the pot boiling so that it’s easier to get their voters to vote.

Plus, it’s married with extreme or apocalyptic rhetoric: “Our rights are being taken away.”  “They’ll bring back slavery!” “The ‘Nazis’ are taking over.”

All politics is national. And Democrats have ingrained politics into every part of their voters’ lives.

They are defying tradition by finding a way to be at a fever pitch around the clock. It now must be recognized for what it is: an obvious GOTV tactic, whatever the merits of a given cause, be it abortion or “undocumented migrants.”

It’s much easier to get your voters to vote if there’s a crisis. And it’s now become a standard tactic for them to morph an election into a cause. There’s no election “season.” They are always identifying issues and voters and encouraging turnout.

They’re constantly filling the sponge with water and coming up with yet another way to “squeeze” it.

2025 was a brilliant display for the Left. Not only did they get to “stand up to Trump,” they had spent the year complaining about “fascists,” “Nazis,” and “No Kings.” So, it’s easy to pivot to GOTV.

“No Kings” rallies aren’t about persuasion. They’re about energizing the base to vote – their lives depend on it.

Bring in the professional signs, the organizers, spokespeople, and the social media images. It’s like a traveling theatre troupe that’s prepared to change scripts as needed to respond to the critical (voters) emotions of the moment. And their allies in legacy media follow each script supporting the current cause or crisis.

The Democrats are laser-focused. The GOP needs to crack the code to match this new tactic without Trump on the ballot. If not, they’ll have their own crisis.

Guy Ciarrocchi writes for RealClear Pennsylvania and Broad+Liberty. A Senior Fellow with the Commonwealth Foundation, follow Guy @PaSuburbsGuy.

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