Democrats approach a perfect 2028 storm
By J.T. Young
Real Clear Wire
As Republicans begin moving away from their greatest divisiveness, Democrats are approaching theirs. Donald Trump is about to exit America’s political stage, even as Democrats are entering their most extreme reaction to him. While Republicans leave their period of divisiveness, Democrats enter theirs – but without the foil of Trump to offset it.
Democrats have redefined intra-party victory. For them, it now means not nominating a democratic socialist. By that standard, Democrats “won” their Wisconsin gubernatorial primary by barely escaping democratic socialist Francesca Hong. They were not so fortunate in their Michigan Senate primary or in several other contests.
Democrats’ leftward course is unmistakable. It is also accelerating. Far-left progressives are now mainstream in comparison to the even further-left democratic socialists increasingly invading Democratic ranks.
Today’s Democratic drift is an even more extreme reaction to Donald Trump than the resistance of 2018. With Trump now in his sixth year in office, this is not surprising. However, for Democrats, it also leaves them exposed. Republicans will be descending from the crests of their divisiveness, as Democrats continue ascending theirs.
There can be no denying that Trump has been a divisive political figure. According to Real Clear Politics’ August 19 tally, Trump’s job approval is below those of Obama and George W. Bush on the same dates in their presidencies. RCP’s average of national polling puts Trump’s favorability at just 40.4%, while his unfavorable rating stands at 56%.
Unlike Bush or Obama, Trump never won a popular vote majority in his three presidential elections. Even in 2024, when he did win the popular vote, exit polling showed Trump still lost 49% of independents, 58% of moderates, and even 9% of conservatives and 6% of Republicans.
Yet, Republicans have weathered Trump’s divisiveness well. They have won two of his three presidential elections. They have held the House and Senate for six of the last ten years. They hold 26 governorships and 57 state legislative houses, with 55% of all their seats. In mid-decade redistricting they have potentially added ten seats to their column and are projected to add nine seats after 2030 reapportionment.
The reverse holds true for Democrats. Even with Trump’s divisiveness, they have either lost political ground or not gained substantially. Their one presidential win was extremely narrow and came during 2020’s pandemic and its economic and civil fallout.
In 2028, Trump will not be on the ballot. Though Democrats will assuredly try to make its elections about Trump, how successful they will be in getting the electorate to look backward, rather than forward, remains to be seen. However, Democrats’ extremism is likely to be on the 2028 ballot.
Democrats went “scorched earth” after Trump following their 2018 midterm takeover of the House. His administration was investigated relentlessly. Trump was impeached twice.
Democrats’ 2018 response to Trump pales in comparison to their stridence in 2026. Eight years ago, “progressives” were the party’s vanguard, and democratic socialists, like those in the Squad, still a rarity. Today, democratic socialists are Democrats’ headline makers, while “progressives” appear mainstream in comparison.
In addition to being less extreme eight years ago, Democrats had other advantages besides knowing that they could count on Trump topping the next election’s ballot.
Seasoned veteran Nancy Pelosi was their House speaker, and their majority was large (235 members) and relatively unified. The former will not be the case in 2027; the latter is unlikely to be. In 2019, they did not hold the Senate, thereby absolving them from governing’s demands. In 2027, they could hold the Senate and full control of Congress; this could also mean facing raised expectations from an enraged and increasingly radicalized base.
Democrats’ problem from their party’s increasing radicalization is shown by polling on Americans’ acceptance of socialism. While 66% of Democrats view socialism positively, only 38% of independents and 14% of Republicans do. In 2024, less than a third (31%) of the electorate were Democrats. In basic numbers: Democratic socialists’ rise within the Democratic Party alienates a third of their own members and overwhelming percentages of almost 70% of the remaining electorate.
Finally, in 2020, Democrats still had holdover establishmentarian Joe Biden, who could smooth over intraparty divisions and play the role of moderate that Democrats need to win a national election. No such presidential candidates exist today for Democrats, and if they did, they likely could not be nominated.
The contrast is stark: Whoever becomes the Republican 2028 nominee is certain to be less divisive than Trump, while the Democratic nominee is likely to be more divisive.
Democrats’ predicament is that they are already extreme, will undoubtedly become more so over the next two years, and have no national figure to either moderate or cloak their increasing extremism.
As Republicans sail out of their period of divisiveness, Democrats are heading straight into theirs … and potentially into a perfect storm.
J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left from RealClear Publishing. Follow him on Substack.