Election results a five-alarm fire for Republicans
By Bill King
Real Clear Wire
The warning signs have been growing for months. While President Trump’s overall approval rating has turned negative, it is not atypical of what other newly elected presidents have experienced. But when asked about Trump’s approval rating on specific issues, the numbers have been far more alarming.
Most analysts agree that Americans’ frustration with inflation and immigration returned the president to the White House. Biden’s record on both was abysmal, and Harris offered no new vision on either. Trump began his second term with a positive approval rating on both of these critical issues. That, however, was short-lived.
RealClearPolitics’ Polling Average shows that his positive approval rating on inflation immediately after the election (+6%) lasted only a month. Since then, it has been pretty much straight downhill, with the RCP average currently at a -25.3%.
I have always felt that every president gets too much blame or credit for prices. There is actually relatively little a president can do to affect them. However, Trump’s tariffs have exacerbated the problem to some degree at a time when prices appeared to be moderating. A Pew Foundation poll in August found Americans disapproved of Trump’s tariff policy by a 61-38 margin.
On immigration, Trump has done somewhat better but has still turned what was a significant advantage into, at best, a push. RealClearPolitics’ tracking on this issue showed Trump maintaining a wide positive approval rating on immigration, frequently topping double digits through the spring as he was able to successfully gain control of the southern border. But as scenes of over-the-top immigration raids began to play out in the media and on social media in the early summer, Americans’ opinion turned sharply negative. Since then, the polling results have varied widely, with RCP’s current average at a +0.5%. Some exit polling Tuesday night suggested Republicans may be fumbling the advantage they gained with Latino voters in 2024, which is likely a major factor in this turnaround.
It is also clear that the shutdown is not working in the Republicans’ favor. We now have 14 polls, and all of them have found that more Americans are blaming Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown. The average margin assessing more blame on Republicans is nearly double digits. Each time I bring these polling results up to my Republican friends, they immediately launch a defense of why it is so unfair to blame them. That may be, but life, and particularly politics, is not fair.
Last Tuesday’s elections were a clean sweep for Democrats. The margins for the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia were much bigger than expected. The California ballot proposition to gerrymander the state’s congressional districts passed by a 2-to-1 margin. In the swing state of Pennsylvania, voters approved by over 20 points keeping three progressive judges who intervened in the 2020 election to extend the deadline for mail ballots.
There is no way to sugarcoat Tuesday night’s results. If Republicans hope to have any chance of retaining control of the House, they must immediately pivot on several key issues.
First, they need to end the shutdown, which will mean giving in to some of the Democrats’ demands. My guess is that just extending the ACA subsidies, which have broad, bipartisan support, would probably be enough to get enough Democrats to join them in ending the shutdown, and Republicans are going to be forced to extend the subsidies eventually anyway.
Second, Trump needs to pivot on immigration and his aggressive deportation policies. There is widespread support among Americans for controlling our borders and removing immigrants with criminal backgrounds. But Americans are never going to approve of seeing parents dragged away from the children or students brought here when they were children being caught up in these dragnets.
Third, Trump needs to moderate his tariff policies, at least until inflation moderates. And Republicans need to pray that it does moderate.
Bill King is a businessman and lawyer, and is a former opinion columnist and editorial board member at the Houston Chronicle. He has served in a number of appointed and elected positions, including mayor of his hometown. He writes on a wide range of public policy and political issues. Bill is the author of “Unapologetically Moderate.”
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