Poll shows growing opposition to Issue 2
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Ohio voters support 57-32 percent the repeal of Senate Bill 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51-38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.
Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.
"With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law."
While Republicans oppose repeal 59-32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77-13 percent and independent voters who agree 56-32 percent.
"Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown.
"Although the parts of the law that require public workers to contribute to their retirement and health care costs are popular with voters, the strong opposition to curtailing collective bargaining and seniority rights apparently is what seems to be carrying the day for the law's opponents. In the end, voters disagree 57-34 percent with Kasich's argument that the limits on union power are needed to balance the budget," Brown added.
Ohio voter opinions on public employee issues are:
Oppose 61-32 percent a ban on public employee strikes;
Oppose 56-36 percent limits on public employee unions from bargaining over health care;
Support 49-40 percent merit-based pay increases rather than seniority-base increases;
Oppose 51-42 eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs;
Support 60-33 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums;
Support 57-34 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions.
Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71-23 percent, not hugely different than the 75-14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance.
The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54-30 percent. Men disapprove 50-41 percent, while women give him a 54-31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51-35 percent last month.
"The good news, if there is good news in this survey, for Gov. Kasich is that he has another three years until he faces re-election, which gives him a lot more time to change voter attitudes than he has about SB 5," said Brown.
At least one Republican in Ohio, however, gets a thumbs up from voters. Sen. Rob Portman has a 38-26 percent approval rating.
From Oct. 17-23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.[[In-content Ad]]
Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.
"With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law."
While Republicans oppose repeal 59-32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77-13 percent and independent voters who agree 56-32 percent.
"Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown.
"Although the parts of the law that require public workers to contribute to their retirement and health care costs are popular with voters, the strong opposition to curtailing collective bargaining and seniority rights apparently is what seems to be carrying the day for the law's opponents. In the end, voters disagree 57-34 percent with Kasich's argument that the limits on union power are needed to balance the budget," Brown added.
Ohio voter opinions on public employee issues are:
Oppose 61-32 percent a ban on public employee strikes;
Oppose 56-36 percent limits on public employee unions from bargaining over health care;
Support 49-40 percent merit-based pay increases rather than seniority-base increases;
Oppose 51-42 eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs;
Support 60-33 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums;
Support 57-34 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions.
Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71-23 percent, not hugely different than the 75-14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance.
The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54-30 percent. Men disapprove 50-41 percent, while women give him a 54-31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51-35 percent last month.
"The good news, if there is good news in this survey, for Gov. Kasich is that he has another three years until he faces re-election, which gives him a lot more time to change voter attitudes than he has about SB 5," said Brown.
At least one Republican in Ohio, however, gets a thumbs up from voters. Sen. Rob Portman has a 38-26 percent approval rating.
From Oct. 17-23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.[[In-content Ad]]