Taiwan’s most vulnerable moment

By David Sarabia
Real Clear Wire

At this very moment, a window of vulnerability exists for Taiwan. The vulnerability is not the looming threat of an all-out invasion of the main island. Rather, the risk is in losing some of Taiwan’s outlying islands, in particular a group of islands called Kinmen.  

The United States appears to be distracted politically and depleted militarily with the current Strait of Hormuz crisis. For the People’s Republic of China, this moment represents an opportunity for President Xi Jinping to accomplish something Mao Zedong failed to achieve. By attempting to take the islands of Kinmen through a blockade and possible amphibious landings, China can again test United States resolve to defend Taiwan against invasion.  

If successful, President Xi can further the Chinese “rejuvenation” after a “Century of Humiliation” while creating the conditions for taking Taiwan by force in the future.  The United States must increase its vigilance while signaling its resolve now rather than later to ensure a Western Pacific free of Chinese aggression.

The most likely flashpoint in great power competition between the United States and China is the possible invasion of Taiwan.  The islands of Kinmen are operationally important with regard to an invasion as they are only six miles from the mainland of China, blocking the port city of Xiamen.  In Ian Easton’s The Chinese Invasion Threat, Kinmen represents a threat to any Chinese invasion force as Taiwan has fortified the islands with a garrison armed with artillery and missiles.  Such a force can hinder any amphibious force attempting to sortie from the coast.  The People’s Liberation Army cannot simply bypass the island allowing attacks within its invasion corridor.   As such Kinmen represents a key operational objective that must be secured before taking the main island.  Mao Zedong recognized this need decades ago.

Going back to the Chinese civil war between China and Taiwan, Kinmen remained in Taiwanese possession thanks to United States assistance.  According to Xiaobing Li’s China’s New Navy, in 1958, Mao Zedong considered the United States distracted by events in the Middle East.  As a means of testing United States resolve to defend Taiwan, Mao ordered the Chinese military to blockade and shell the islands of Kinmen in preparation for their occupation.  One of Mao’s main concerns was to not cause casualties among any Americans, either on the islands or at sea.  In response to Mao’s test, President Eisenhower ordered the United States Navy to protect Taiwan’s relief convoys attempting to run the blockade.  The protection allowed Taiwan’s convoys to approach Kinmen without being attacked while transiting the Taiwan Strait.  Without United States intervention, the defenders on Kinmen would have eventually run out of supplies and likely succumbed to Chinese occupation.  For China, the “Century of Humiliation” continued at the hands of Western powers with this intervention.

President Xi Jinping seeks to “rejuvenate” China. To that end, the People’s Republic of China has for years relied on diplomatic pressure and “gray zone” tactics to assert its sovereignty claims over the waters around Kinmen and Taiwan in general.  Pointedly, he has set a goal for the People’s Liberation Army to have the capability to take Taiwan by 2027.  Although few scholars believe that China has the sealift capacity to take Taiwan, estimates indicate that the People Liberation Army could land at least 20,000 troops supported by mechanized vehicles in one lift.  Currently, the Kinmen garrison has an estimated 5,000 defenders. Although heavily defended, Kinmen would still face a daunting task of fending off many times the number of invaders, supported by overwhelming Chinese air, sea, and missile power. More importantly, Xi may choose this moment as the weather conditions along the Strait are more favorable during the coming months than other times of the year, ensuring a higher chance of success should he order an amphibious landing. A blockade backed by a credible demonstration of the use of force could allow Xi to prove the combat capabilities of the Army while also providing a dress rehearsal for an eventual invasion.  Additionally, Xi can solidify domestic support while bolstering the morale of the Army.  Internationally, if the United States should back down or not even intervene, China’s “best strategy,” which is a fracturing of America’s alliances in the Pacific (as coined by Elbridge Colby in The Strategy of Denial), may see its first steps on Kinmen. 

President Xi testing American resolve is made more likely since the United States is once again distracted politically and drained militarily with events in the Middle East. Recently, the Pentagon ordered the last Western Pacific carrier, the USS George Washington, to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, to support combat operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Additionally, reports of shortages of American missiles have led to concerns over the “lack the depth of munitions inventories that it needs today.” Destruction and damage of American fighter aircraft, drones, and command and control aircraft reduce the availability of such assets that could be used to contest Chinese denial operations over the Taiwan Strait. These issues add to the concern that United States military capacity is not prepared to confront an aggressive China.

During previous crises in the Taiwan Strait, the United States signaled its resolve to defend Taiwan, often through the deployment of aircraft carriers. For example, according to Xiaobing Li, President Clinton sent the USS Nimitz through the Strait while also deploying the USS Independence carrier battle group around the main island during the 1996 Taiwan Crisis. Today, for President Xi, this moment represents an opportunity to test the United States once again since a primary tool for signaling American resolve is now steaming toward the Middle East leaving a monthslong gap in aircraft carrier coverage. The apparent lack of carriers, missiles and aircraft could encourage China that now is the right time to take Kinmen.  The United States would need to signal that American warships will still escort Taiwanese relief supplies even with the absence of aircraft carriers and possibly reduced land-based air cover. 

Because of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan is in a very vulnerable moment with regard to Kinmen.  In response, the United States must conduct focused intelligence collection to look for any indications of an impending blockade or preparations for an amphibious landing.  America must also signal to China that it will not allow Kinmen to change hands.  Currently, the United States has military members on Kinmen.  The public deployment of additional American trainers to Kinmen can demonstrate the Administration’s resolve to defend Taiwan.  

The Pentagon could also increase freedom-of-navigation operations with United States warships in the Taiwan Strait specifically along the likely supply route from Taiwan to Kinmen, demonstrating the willingness to escort convoys even without aircraft carriers. By signaling resolve before President Xi orders such a test, the United States can ensure that the Western Pacific is free of Chinese aggression while reassuring allies and partners in the region.  Mao tried in 1958 and Xi has a window to try again. Now is not the time for ambiguity but clarity lest America reneges on its commitments.

Dr. David Sarabia currently serves as an adjunct instructor of political science at Hardin-Simmons University in Abilene, Texas.  He completed his doctorate from Missouri State University’s School of Defense and Strategic Studies with a capstone doctoral project focused on a Taiwan Strait conflict. Dr. Sarabia is a retired United States Air Force intelligence officer and a veteran of Operations IRAQI FREEDOM and ENDURING FREEDOM.