Play your cards right

By Adam Ellwanger 
and John J. Waters
Real Clear Wire

Washington, D.C. isn’t Las Vegas, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came to the nation’s capital last week to throw the dice, to gamble that he could win unlimited funds, weapons, and, yes, even American troops.  

He played – and lost.  

Zelensky would have done well to read "You Can Negotiate Anything" by Herb Cohen, who once said: “The meek shall inherit the Earth, but not its mineral rights.”

Millions have followed Cohen’s wisdom for how to generate and use leverage in a business negotiation. But not Zelensky.

He believes his small nation can outfight and outlast an adversary that lost 20 million soldiers as America’s ally in World War Two, including more than one million dead at the Battle of Stalingrad.

Zelensky is a former comedian, but he appears quite serious that Ukraine can defeat Russia, as long as he has the United States in his pocket. 

That’s right: Zelensky wants U.S. troops to “guarantee” his country’s security. This is another way of suggesting our troops should die for Ukraine; another way for Ukraine to back into the “collective defense” obligation described in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.  

After three years of war and hundreds of thousands killed or wounded, President Trump disagrees.

“We have to negotiate a deal,” Trump told the Ukrainian president repeatedly and politely, before the conversation became antagonistic. New York Times columnist David Brooks said he was “nauseated” by President Trump’s behavior, but we contend Trump was professional and strong on his position. He complimented the bravery of Ukraine’s soldiers. He acknowledged how hard Ukraine has fought in the field. He credited Ukraine’s generals (and Zelensky himself) for defending their country.

“You have to be very proud,” Trump said, “but now we want to get it over with.” 

The overriding metaphor of their conversation was gambling, and President Trump gave Zelensky a plain, realistic assessment of the situation.

“You don’t have the cards,” he explained.

Failing or refusing to understand the metaphor, Zelensky shot back: “We’re not playing cards.”

“You’re playing cards,” Trump insisted. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War Three.”

And Trump produced the receipts, noting that 350 billion dollars of the American people’s money had been staked on the gamble in Ukraine. Zelensky also was gambling – as Vice President JD Vance pointed out – that he could get what he wanted by pressing his case before the media, in the Oval Office, and that Trump, like Biden, wouldn’t push back in a public forum.

Winning at the table demands strategy, but Zelensky displayed none of it Friday. It’s tempting to say Trump called Zelensky’s bluff, but a bluff implies an awareness that you don’t have the cards, that you don’t have the leverage to influence the outcome of the deal. The fact that Trump had to explain this to Zelensky proves that the war needs to end – and soon.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, no Western leader except Trump has dared to demand that Zelensky face the truth. He is welcomed as a hero in every nation of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Sean Penn awarded him his Oscar. Vogue magazine gave him and his wife a glamour spread. Acting, of course, is a key skill in winning at the poker table – especially when you don’t have the cards. Zelensky’s been covering the ante with our chips, and now we all stand to lose even more.

“The problem is I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy,” Trump mused aloud.  

Fortunately, America is done writing blank checks for Zelensky’s casino trips. Zelensky persists in asking for unconditional, unlimited support and “security guarantees” from the United States. Until when? Until Ukraine wins the war, Russia retreats, and pays for the reconstruction of the nation they invaded. Trump correctly understands that this is never going to happen. From an “America First” perspective, a peace deal is the only acceptable outcome. Any viable deal will require compromise from both nations. We won’t ignore our national interest because Zelensky doesn’t like the terms.

Trump indicated that Zelensky’s unrealistic vision of himself and Ukraine’s prospects could scuttle a deal. Zelensky twice refused to sign the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal before his visit to Washington.

“It’s gonna be a very hard thing to do business like this,” Trump said. “[It’s] gonna be a tough deal to make because the attitudes have to change.”

As always, media-savvy Trump recognized the ugliness of the exchange was a positive development. When Vance chided Zelensky for “litigating this in front of the American media,” Trump corrected him: “I think it’s good for the American people to see what’s going on.”

Keenly aware of the visual dimension of communication and persuasion as he was ending the exchange, Trump said: “This is gonna be great television, I’ll say that.”

Critics like columnist David Brooks think Trump’s behavior is “unpresidential” but they’re missing the core revelation: Zelensky is a bad actor in both senses of the term. He is an unreliable partner for the United States, and someone who doesn’t know when to suppress the hero shtick.

After losing hand after hand, Zelensky still insists that America has an obligation to cover his bets because he’s going to win the next one. It’s not just ingratitude and entitlement; it’s exploitation and extortion. President Trump should give Zelensky some time to take another look at his cards, and make clear that if America is going to stay at the table, Zelensky will play his hand the way we want it played.

Adam Ellwanger is a professor at University of Houston – Downtown, where he teaches rhetoric and writing. Follow him at @1HereticalTruth on X. John J. Waters is a lawyer. He served as a deputy assistant secretary of Homeland Security from 2020-21. Follow him at @JohnJWaters1 on X.